Improvement on Forecasting of Propagation of the COVID-19 Pandemic through Combining Oscillations in ARIMA Models

Abstract

Daily data on COVID-19 infections and deaths tend to possess weekly oscillations. The purpose of this work is to forecast COVID-19 data with partially cyclical fluctuations. A partially periodic oscillating ARIMA model is suggested to enhance the predictive performance. The model, optimized for improved prediction, characterizes and forecasts COVID-19 time series data marked by weekly oscillations. Parameter estimation and out-of-sample forecasting are carried out with data on daily COVID-19 infections and deaths between January 2021 and October 2022 in the USA, Germany, and Brazil, in which the COVID-19 data exhibit the strongest weekly cycle behaviors. Prediction accuracy measures, such as RMSE, MAE, and HMAE, are evaluated, and 95% prediction intervals are constructed. It was found that predictions of daily COVID-19 data can be improved considerably: a maximum of 55–65% in RMSE, 58–70% in MAE, and 46–60% in HMAE, compared to the existing models. This study provides a useful predictive model for the COVID-19 pandemic, and can help institutions manage their healthcare systems with more accurate statistical information.