SIMULATION OF RAINFALL OVER WEST NUSA TENGGARA PROVINCE BASED ON ECHAM5/MPI-OM AND GFDL CM2.1

Abstract

Rainfall over the West Nusa Tenggara Province were simulated by a Regional Climate Model (RCM)—the CSIRO Conformal-Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM) driven by two host General Circulation Models (GCMs), ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1. Three periods considered for this study were 1980–1999, 2050–2069, and 2080–2099 for the IPCC SRES greenhouse gas emission scenario A2. Simulations for the 1980–1999 periods were evaluated against observational data. The finding shows that in general, ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 do not show any significant behaviour in simulating annual mean rainfall patterns for the period of 2050 – 2069 and period of 2080 – 2099. Nevertheless, for current period (1980 – 1999) those both GCMs are markedly different in simulation of annual mean rainfall. There are also simulations of seasonal mean rainfalls, dry and wet season, and show that ECHAM5/MPI-OM and GFDL CM2.1 are nearly similar in simulating dry season but not for wet season.