Analysis of HIV Epidemic in Cyprus using a Mathematical Model

Abstract

Objective: The Mediterranean island of Cyprus has a high rate of human transit as a result of tourism, human trafficking, and migration, which could contribute to the rate of HIV infection. The island is divided into 2 states – the northern portion is mainly populated by Turkish-Cypriots, and the southern portion is populated by Greek-Cypriots. The aim of this study was to assess the dynamics of HIV infection in both segments of Cyprus using a mathematical model. Materials and Methods: Data of HIV-positive individuals diagnosed during the period 1997–2018 in northern Cyprus were obtained from the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus Ministry of Health database, yielding a total of 129 cases, and data for the southern region, the Republic of Cyprus, were retrieved from a European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) 2013 report and ECDC/World Health Organization 2017 data. The total number of reported HIV infections was 1057. A mathematical model was used to evaluate the current and future HIV infection rate. Results: Stability analysis of the equilibrium point – disease-free or endemic – was conducted using the Lyapunov function. The basic reproduction number, represented as R0, is a measure of the potential for disease spread and serves as a threshold for stability. The R0 value was 0.83 in northern Cyprus and 0.040 in southern Cyprus. An R0 indicated a disease-free equilibrium. Conclusion: The calculations suggest that there is no current HIV epidemic on either part of the island; however, the model predicted a significant increase in the near future.