Quantitative analysis of the determinants influencing urban expansion: A case study in Beijing, China

Abstract

A quantitative analysis of spatial influencing factors on urban sprawl can offer better support for urban planning and management. There are many concerns regarding the influence of each factor. However, a quantitative analysis to detect the interactions between factors is limited because of the complexity of the urban systems, especially the role of planning. Additionally, spatial heterogeneity is often overlooked. This study aims to improve and strengthen the knowledge in this field through a spatial statistical method known as GeoDetector. A new spatial quantification of urban expansion was presented in this study and the spatio-temporal characteristics and mechanism of urban growth in Beijing from 2010 to 2015 were also analyzed. The results show that urban expansion presents spatial heterogeneity with different grid cells, and the optimal scale was 4500 m. At this scale, urban expansion in Beijing linearly expands along the traffic trunk. In addition, urban expansion in Beijing is jointly influenced by socioeconomic, geographical, and policy factors. Population density has had the greatest influence on urban expansion from 2010 to 2015, and policy factors rank first. The impact of economic factors on urban growth is gradually weakening. It is important for urban geographical research to further plans and guide urban development.