Estimating the casualties of the earthquake caused by the Lembang Fault in Coblong, Bandung, Indonesia

Abstract

Bandung is a metropolis in Indonesia located 10 km from the Lembang Fault. Being near a fault and having a dense population places Bandung at a high risk of suffering an earthquake. The lack of an earthquake risk assessment for the Lembang Fault is the main motivation of this study, which aims to provide information on the risk of building damage and estimated casualties in the Coblong District. This study uses earthquake scenarios with magnitudes of 6 and 7 caused by the Lembang Fault. Earthquake acceleration data on bedrock along with building vulnerability curves are used to obtain the probability of building damage. The number of victims is calculated based on the level of building damage using the event tree model from the HAZUS method. The results of the calculation show that the Lembang Fault earthquake with a magnitude of 6 could cause casualties in Coblong amounting to around 0.6% of the population, rising to as much as 1.5% for a magnitude of 7. The level of building damage is 36.6% and 55.6%, respectively.