Using the Delphi Method in Forecasting Tourism Activity

Abstract

Delphi method is used to obtain usually medium or long-term forecasts, which involves establishing a consensus from a panel of experts asked to make estimates about the evolution of the economical phenomenon. If it cannot be obtain the wished consensus, the opinions having a certain degree of divergence, it aims to reduce as much of this dispersion, without a direct influence on the panel of experts, using a framework in which their expert feedback drive to the conclusion of the study. Of course there are some advantages and disadvantages of this method and these are presented in the article content.