METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING DALAM PERAMALAN JUMLAH PEMOHON PASPOR (Studi Kasus : Kantor Imigrasi Kelas II Non-TPI Depok)

Abstract

The Immigration Office of Class II Non-TPI Depok City is an institution that provides services engaged in the field of immigration, one of which is providing passport processing services. This increase in the number of passport applicants will have an impact on the availability of facilities, infrastructure, and passport management services which often reach 2000 – 3000 passports per month in 2018. From the problems above, the author offers a solution, namely by predicting the number of passport applicants. There are several methods used to solve this problem, including the double exponential smoothing method as the method that will be tested in this study This method uses parameter values obtained from trial and error calculations to produce accurate values because the data is fluctuating so it requires smoothing parameters. If the data used a lot in the calculation of forecasting then MAPE (Mean Absolute Percentage Error) forecasting will be smaller and vice versa . The results of the forecasting of passport creation applications produced by the Double Exponential Smoothing Method with a parameter of α = 0.4 (selection of the best alpha between 0 to 1) obtained a MAPE value of 14.28%. MAPE criteria that are worth 14.28% belong to the category of GOOD in forecasting the application for passport creation in the period to be obtained.