Operational implementation of the arome model in the tropics: Multiscale validation of rainfall forecasts

Abstract

Météo-France runs operationally, for the needs of several overseas regions in the tropical belt, five numerical weather prediction configurations, based on the convection-permitting model AROME and called the AROME-OM system. These configurations use the high-resolution model [Integrated Forecasting System (IFS)] from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) for both initialization and lateral forcing. In this study, the performance of the AROME-OM system for rainfall forecasting is compared to the one of ECMWF IFS. The validation uses spatialized rainfall estimates over a 24-h time period at two time scales (daily and annual), from both satellite and ground-based instruments. It has been performed over a 10-month period and across five tropical domains. The intercomparison demonstrates consistent signals across domains and scales. The added value of the AROME-OM system compared to ECMWF IFS is shown for rain/no-rain discrimination and for rain accumulations larger than 10 mm day21. The AROME-OM system also shows a better ability to forecast realistic rain patterns over these tropical regions. The main weakness found is for an intermediate range of rain accumulations, from 1 to 10 mm day21, for which the ECMWF IFS forecasts slightly outperform the AROME-OM system forecasts.