Impacts of Climate Change on Groundwater in the Al-Badan Sub-Catchment, Palestine: Analyzing Historical Data and Future Scenarios

Abstract

Climate change is significantly impacting water resources, especially in arid regions. This study evaluates its effects on groundwater in the Al-Badan sub-catchment, Palestine, by analyzing hydroclimatic data from 1990 to 2020 and the future predicted climate change scenarios. Using the Mann-Kendall test and Sen’s slope estimator, a significant annual decline in annual precipitation of 125 mm and a temperature increase of 1.84 °C were observed, resulting in a spring discharge reduction of 1.2 MCM. Multiple linear regression analysis showed that a 10% increase in precipitation correlates with a 5% discharge increase, while a 1 °C rise in temperature results in a 2.3% discharge decrease. Future scenarios indicate significant changes: for 2040–2060, RCP2.6 forecasts average precipitation of 334.5 mm with temperatures at 18.5 °C, resulting in spring discharge of about 4.6 MCM. In contrast, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict reductions in precipitation to 307.2 mm and 311.2 mm, respectively, with temperatures rising to 18.9 °C and 19.3 °C, leading to discharge declines to 4.2 MCM and 4.0 MCM. For 2080–2100, RCP2.6 anticipates 335.8 mm of precipitation and temperatures rising to 19.5 °C, resulting in average discharge of 4.5 MCM. RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 predict further declines in precipitation and discharge, underscoring the need for effective water management strategies.