Toward Green Manufacturing: A Heuristic Hybrid Machine Learning Framework with PSO for Scrap Reduction

Abstract

Accurate scrap forecasting is essential for advancing green manufacturing, as reducing defective output not only lowers production costs but also prevents unnecessary resource consumption and environmental impact. Effective scrap prediction enables manufacturers to take proactive measures to minimize waste generation, thereby supporting sustainability goals and improving production efficiency. This study proposes a hybrid ensemble framework that integrates CatBoost and XGBoost, combined with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO), to enhance prediction accuracy in industrial applications. The model exploits the complementary strengths of both algorithms by applying weighted averaging and stacked generalization, allowing it to process heterogeneous datasets containing both categorical and numerical variables. A case study in the aerospace manufacturing sector demonstrates the effectiveness of the proposed approach. Compared to standalone models, the PSO-enhanced hybrid ensemble achieved more than a 30% reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE), confirming its ability to capture complex interactions among diverse process parameters. Feature importance analysis further showed that categorical attributes, such as machine type and operator, are as influential as numerical parameters, underscoring the need for hybrid modeling. Although the model requires higher computational effort, the integration of PSO significantly improves robustness and scalability. By reducing scrap and optimizing resource utilization, the proposed framework provides a data-driven pathway toward greener, more resource-efficient, and resilient manufacturing systems.