Airline performance modelling to support schedule development: an application case study

Abstract

The authors address a Monte Carlo simulation model which was developed and used to help one airline evaluate its on-time arrival performance. The complex interactions of airline operations defy prescriptive modeling. Airlines must make frequent changes to their schedules. In this environment, a descriptive, stochastic simulation model of the events and interactions that take place has been developed, providing a useful laboratory for an airline operations planner and scheduler. Using the model, the authors and airline operations planners were able to examine alternative strategies for maintaining high on-time performance without increasing costs.