Spatio-temporal associations between deforestation and malaria incidence in Lao Pdr.

Abstract

As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination e orts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases in con rmed malaria case incidence in Lao People’s Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identi ed strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These ndings highlight the in uence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.