China’s Non-CO2 Greenhouse Gas Emissions: Future Trajectories and Mitigation Options and Potential

Abstract

Forecasts indicate that China’s non-carbon dioxide (CO2) greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions will increase rapidly from the 2014 baseline of 2 billion metric tons of CO2 equivalent (CO2e). Previous studies of the potential for mitigating non-CO2 GHG emissions in China have focused on timeframes through only 2030, or only on certain sectors or gases. This study uses a novel bottom-up end-use model to estimate mitigation of China’s non-CO2 GHGs under a Mitigation Scenario whereby today’s cost-effective and technologically feasible CO2 and non-CO2 mitigation measures are deployed through 2050. The study determines that future non-CO2 GHG emissions are driven largely by industrial and agricultural sources and that China could reduce those emissions by 47% by 2050 while enabling total GHG emissions to peak by 2023. Except for F-gas mitigation, few national or sectoral policies have focused on reducing non-CO2 GHGs. Policy, market, and other institutional support are needed to realize the cost-effective mitigation potentials identified in this study.