Supply and Demand of Regional Populism in Bavaria: Explaining the Regional Success of the CSU and Free Voters

Abstract

This article tests the concept of regional populism to explain the electoral success of the CSU and the Free Voters in Bavaria, two parties that together have governed the state since 2018. It bridges research on populism and regionalism by presenting a new set of survey items that measure regional populism. The CSU and Free Voters are often accused of ‘being populist’, yet they do not conform to standard definitions of populist parties. However, both pit the interests of their ‘Bavarian Heimat’ against external elites in ‘Berlin’ and ‘Brussels’. This study analyses the extent to which regional populist attitudes resonate with different voter groups. The items are tested in a novel post-election survey conducted for the 2023 Bavarian state election. While regional populist attitudes are widespread among AfD, Free Voters, and CSU supporters, regional populism is a stronger predictor of support for the CSU and Free Voters than general populism. In contrast, the AfD vote is better explained by general (i.e. non-regional) populism than regional populism. The findings underscore the significance of regional populism in explaining the success of regional parties and advocate for future research to thoroughly investigate the populist dimensions of regional political discourse across Europe.