Innovative Multi-Type Identification System for Cropland Abandonment on the Loess Plateau: Spatiotemporal Dynamics, Driver Shifts (2000–2023) and Implications for Food Security

Abstract

As a critical ecological barrier and key dryland agricultural zone in China, the Loess Plateau is faced with acute tensions between food security risks arising from cropland abandonment (CA) and the imperatives of ecological conservation. Yet, existing research has failed to adequately capture the long-term, high-spatiotemporal-resolution dynamics of abandonment in this region or to quantitatively couple its driving mechanisms with implications for food security. To address these gaps, this study establishes a high-precision identification system for CA tailored to the Plateau’s complex topographic conditions, distinguishing among interannual abandonment, multiyear abandonment, conversion to forest/grassland, and reclamation. Leveraging long-term data from 2000 to 2023 and integrating the Mann–Kendall test with the random forest algorithm, we examine the spatiotemporal trajectories, driving forces, and food security consequences of CA. Guided by a “type differentiation–grade classification–temporal tracking” framework, the analysis reveals a marked transition in dominant drivers from “socioeconomic factors” to “topographic–climatic factors.” It further identifies an “increasing loss–slowing growth” effect of abandonment on grain production, alongside a “pressure alleviation” trend in per capita carrying capacity. The results showed that: (1) Between 2000 and 2023, the area of CA on the Loess Plateau expanded from 2.72 million ha to 6.96 million ha, with high-grade abandonment (≥8 years) accounting for 58.9% of the total and being spatially concentrated in the hilly–gully regions of northern Shaanxi and eastern Gansu; (2) The Grain for Green Project (GFGP) peaked at approximately 340,000 hectares in 2018, followed by a slight decline, but has generally remained at around 300,000 hectares since then; (3) The reclamation rate of CA remained between 5% and 12% during 2003–2015, with minimal overall fluctuations, but after 2016, it gradually increased and peaked at 23.4% in 2022; (4) In terms of driving forces, population density (14.99%) was the primary determinant in 2005, whereas by 2020, slope (15.43%) and mean annual precipitation (15.63%) emerged as core factors; and (5) Grain yield losses attributable to abandonment increased from less than 100 t to nearly 450 t, though the growth rate slowed after 2016, accompanied by gradual alleviation of pressure on per capita carrying capacity. Overall, the study offers robust empirical evidence to inform cropland protection, food security strategies, and sustainable agricultural development policies on the Loess Plateau.