A resiliency assessment of Ontario's low-water response mechanism: Implications for addressing management of low-water under potential future climate change

Abstract

Investigation on the performance of Ontario's low-water response (OLWR) mechanism during current periods of drought is an important research task given that climate variability and change may alter the frequency and intensity of extreme events. Factors that influence the resilience of the OLWR mechanism and the ability of the mechanism to guide water allocation decisions are identified based on interview responses from 13 OLWR team members in the Grand River watershed. Results of this study indicate that the OLWR mechanism may not be resilient enough to operate under conditions of serious low-flow and that aquatic ecosystems could be compromised during times of serious water scarcity. Water use allocation priority, water use classification categories, ambiguity surrounding the ecosystem-based approach to water management, and the tendency of the low-water response mechanism to operate in reactive mode were identified as issues that hinder the way the mechanism is currently administered, suggesting that the mechanism may not operate in a resilient fashion under a changing climate. The infrequent occurrence of drought in Ontario results in a continuous manifestation of the hydro-illogical cycle which is perhaps one reason why shortcomings of the mechanism remain unaddressed. A challenge is to find practical ways of enhancing the resilience of the low-water response mechanism using a proactive approach to effectively manage water resources during times of drought. Creation of a more resilient low-water response plan will ultimately enhance future drought-preparedness under projected changed climate conditions for Ontario and aid adaptation strategies to reduce future vulnerability. © 2012 Canadian Water Resources Association.