Distribution of reported syphilis cases in South China: Spatiotemporal analysis

Abstract

There was a varied spatial distribution of reported syphilis cases across cities in South China. This study aims to identify and describe spatiotemporal clusters of primary and secondary syphilis (P/S) cases in this region. Reported syphilis cases in Guangdong Province, China, from January 2014 to June 2015 were collected from the national centralized reporting system. Spatiotemporal clusters of P/S were identified and cross-validated by calculating local Moran's I, performing hotspot analysis (Getis-Ord Gi∗), and constructing a discrete Poisson model in SaTScan. Reported cases within and outside the clusters were compared by bivariable and multivariable logistic regression. Out of 17,691 reported P/S cases, 11% were in the identified spatiotemporal clusters. The monthly P/S notification rate (per 100,000 persons) ranged between 0.6 and 1. The identified clusters were located in 14, out of 126, counties in eight, out of 21, cities. Cases of older age, living in rural area and taking self-initiated syphilis test were more likely to be in the clusters. Some areas bore a greater burden of P/S in Guangdong Province. Routine spatiotemporal analysis of P/S cases may be useful for enhancing syphilis control programs by strategic location-based service planning.