Burden of gastrointestinal cancers among adolescent and young adults in Asia-Pacific region: trends from 1990 to 2019 and future predictions to 2044

Abstract

Background: Gastrointestinal cancer is a significant cause of cancer incidence and mortality. Nevertheless, the epidemiology of the burden among adolescents and young adults (AYAs, aged 15–39 years) remains limited in the Asia-Pacific region, despite the region’s significant population. This study aims to explore the gastrointestinal cancer burden among AYAs in the Asia-Pacific region for the year 2019, while also analysing trends from 1990 to 2019 and projecting future trends up to 2044. Methods: Annual case numbers, age-standardized rates of incidence, death, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and their estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) for gastrointestinal cancers were derived from the Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2019. Trends over the next 25 years have also been predicted. Results: In 2019, there were 117,714 incident cases, 61,578 deaths and 3,483,053 DALYs due to gastrointestinal cancers in the Asia-Pacific region, accounting for 68.5%, 67.6% and 72.4%, respectively, of global gastrointestinal cancers in this population. The highest age­standardized rates occurred in countries with a middle Socio-demographic Index. From 1990 to 2019, there was a decline in the age-standardized rates of incidence, death and DALY attributed to gastrointestinal cancers, with EAPC of −1.10, −2.48 and −2.44, respectively. These rates are expected to stabilize over 25 years, with notable variations in individual gastrointestinal cancers. Conclusions: Gastrointestinal cancers among AYAs in the Asia-Pacific region have posed a significant burden over the past 30 years and are expected to persist in the coming years.