Forecasting Trends of Safety Performance Indicators in Aviation

Abstract

The article concerns the issues of forecasting trends of safety performance indicators (SPIs)in civil aviation. The main objective was to present a proposal for the method of forecasting trends in air traffic safety performance indicators in the future. For this purpose, a SPI forecasting method based on Holt's exponential smoothing model was proposed. To confirm the correctness of the proposed method, a selected, sample safety performance indicator for Airspace Infringement occurrences was forecasted. An analysis of the obtained results was carried out, as well as the directions of further research in this area were presented. The article discusses also the issues of forecasting development trends of selected safety performance indicators and their variability over time for the Polish airspace.