Trend of leprosy in individuals under the age of 15 in Mato Grosso (Brazil), 2001-2013

Abstract

OBJECTIVE: To identify the historical trend of leprosy epidemiological indicators in individualsunder the age of 15 in the state of Mato Grosso.METHODS: Descriptive study with trend analysis of leprosy indicators in individuals underthe age of fifteen registered in the Mato Grosso’s System for Notifiable Diseases between 2001and 2013. We used the Prais-Winsten procedure for analyzing generalized linear regression at asignificance level of 5%. We considered as increasing time series when the annual percent changewas positive, decreasing when negative and stationary when there was no significant differencebetween its value and zero.RESULTS: We analyzed 2455 cases of leprosy and the average detection rate in individuals underthe age of fifteen was 22.7 per 100 thousand inhabitants. The trend of the general coefficient ofincidence was decreasing, with an average annual rate of -5.5% (95%CI -7.5–-3.5). Increasing trendwas observed with an increase of 6.7% (95%CI 2.7–10.8) in the proportion of multibacillary cases,9.4% (95%CI 4.4–14.7) of cases diagnosed with dimorphic clinical form and 14% (95%CI 7.9–20.4)of cases with physical disability level 2 at the time of diagnosis. There was an increasing trend inthe average proportion of examined contacts, with a growth of 4.1% (95%CI 1.2–7.1) and averageproportion of healing was precarious (39.7%), with stationary trend.CONCLUSIONS: The historical trend of leprosy cases in individuals under the age of fifteenproved to be decreasing in the period, however the trends of epidemiological indicators suchas the proportion of multibacillary cases, physical disability level 2 and healing, indicate latediagnosis with stay sources of transmission and consequent worsening of the disease in thestate of Mato Grosso.