If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it: how the public’s economic confidence in the fossil fuel industry reduces support for a clean energy transition

Abstract

We expand on ongoing debates about the role of economic losses and benefits for a clean energy transition. Rather than focusing on the potential economic benefits of alternative industries and energy sources, we highlight the role of economic optimism people display towards the fossil fuel industry. We argue that people’s confidence in the fossil fuel industry to remain an important economic driver in the future can undermine support for climate policies because people do not perceive a need to turn to alternative industries for economic prosperity. Instead, they continue to support the status-quo. We test our argument using survey level data collected in the spring of 2019 in the Canadian province of Alberta, an ideal case due to the province’s economic dependence on the fossil fuel industry. The results support our argument, highlighting the need for policymakers to develop communication strategies on future economic benefits of energy transition.