Investigating the Role of Machine Learning Algorithms in Predicting Sepsis using Vital Sign Data

Abstract

Objective: In hospitals, sepsis is a common and costly condition, but machine learning systems that utilize electronic health records can enhance the timely detection of sepsis. The purpose of this research is to verify the effectiveness of a machine learning tool that makes use of a gradient boosted ensemble for sepsis diagnosis and prediction in relation. San Francisco University of California, (SFUC) Medical Center and the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care (MIMIC) databases were consulted for historical information. The study encompassed adult patients who were admitted without sepsis and had a minimum single logging of six vital signs (SpO2, temperature, heart rate, respiratory rate, diastolic blood pressure and systolic). Using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve, the performance of the machine learning algorithm was compared to commonly used scoring systems, and its accuracy was determined. Performance of the MLA (machine learning algorithm) was evaluated at sepsis onset, as well as 24 and 48 hours before sepsis onset. The AUROC for the MLA was 0.88, 0.84, and 0.83 for sepsis onset, 24 hours prior, and 48 hours prior, respectively. At the time of onset, these values were superior to those of SOFA, MEWS, qSOFA, and SIRS. Using UCSF data for training and MIMIC data for testing, the sepsis onset AUROC was 0.89. The MLA can safely predict sepsis up to forty-eight hours before it occurs and the accuracy in detecting the onset of sepsis is higher in comparison to traditional instruments. When trained and evaluated on distinct datasets, the MLA maintains high performance for sepsis detection.