Comparative survival and cost-effectiveness of advanced therapies for end-stage heart failure

Abstract

Background: Treatment options for end-stage heart failure include inotrope-dependent medical therapy, orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT), left ventricular assist device (LVAD) as destination therapy or bridge to transplant. Methods and Results: We developed a state-transition model to simulate 4 treatment options and associated morbidity and mortality. Transition probabilities, costs, and utilities were estimated from published sources. Calculated outcomes included survival, quality-adjusted life-years, and incremental cost-effectiveness. Sensitivity analyses were performed on model parameters to test robustness. Average life expectancy for OHT-eligible patients is estimated at 1.1 years, with 39% surviving to 1 year. OHT with a median wait time of 5.6 months is estimated to increase life expectancy to 8.5 years, and costs 3.8 additional life-years for patients waiting ≥6 months, but does not meet conventional costeffectiveness thresholds. Destination therapy-LVAD significantly improves life expectancy in OHT-ineligible patients. However, further reductions in adverse events or improved quality of life are needed for destination therapy-LVAD to be cost effective. © 2014 American Heart Association, Inc.