Skill of the Saudi-KAU CGCM in Forecasting ENSO and its Comparison with NMME and C3S Models

Abstract

This paper assesses the skill of the Saudi-King Abdulaziz University coupled ocean–atmosphere Global Climate Model, namely Saudi-KAU CGCM, in forecasting the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)-related sea surface temperature. The model performance is evaluated based on a reforecast of 38 years from 1982 to 2019, with 20 ensemble members of 12-month integrations. The analysis is executed on ensemble mean data separately for boreal winter (December to February: DJF), spring (March to May: MAM), summer (June to August: JJA), and autumn (September to November: SON) seasons. It is found that the Saudi-KAU model mimics the observed climatological pattern and variability of the SST in the tropical Pacific region. A cold bias of about 0.5–1.0 °C is noted in the ENSO region during all seasons at 1-month lead times. A statistically significant positive correlation coefficient is observed for the predicted SST anomalies in the tropical Pacific Ocean that lasts out to 6 months. Across varying times of the year and lead times, the model shows higher skill for autumn and winter target seasons than for spring or summer ones. The skill of the Saudi-KAU model in predicting Niño 3.4 index is comparable to that of state-of-the-art models available in the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) and North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) projects. The ENSO skill demonstrated in this study is potentially useful for regional climate services providing early warning for precipitation and temperature variations on sub-seasonal to seasonal time scales.