How Far Is China From the Ideal Sustainable Development Pathway?

Abstract

Sustainable development is a concern across all sectors in the modern world. While numerous measures have been developed to evaluate sustainable development levels, significant gaps persist in assessing the sustainability of development pathways. This study assesses the sustainability of China's development through the framework of “strong sustainability” and proposes region-specific development pathways informed by the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) index and underlying driving factors. The Sustainable Development Pathway Index (SDPI) is used to establish sustainable social standards and distinguish development pathways among regions. Using data from China in 2000 and 2020, quantile regression is employed to analyze the driving factors effectively. The results indicate a stepped distribution from east to west, with 77.42% of regions following a sustainable development pathway. Notably, Beijing has entered the “Brundtland Quadrat.” Ecological factors, such as vegetation cover, act as constraints on the development of regions with the HH and LH patterns. Social and cultural factors, such as infrastructure development and maternal education levels, play a pivotal role in guiding regions following sustainable development pathways toward an ideal sustainable development society. Accurately measuring the SDPI and determining regional development patterns provide valuable insights for decision-makers and serve as key references for other developing countries in their pursuit of sustainable development pathways.