Framing the Loss and Damage Debate: A Thought Starter by the Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Countries Initiative

Abstract

Loss and damage refers to the negative effects of climate variability and climate change that people have not been able to cope with or adapt to. Loss and damage is already a significant – and in some places growing – conse- quence of an inadequate ability to adapt to changes in climate patterns across the world. Potential future loss and damage depends on emissions, vulner- ability, and exposure variables of the impacted human (or natural) system. Today, loss and damage arising from climate change impacts is mostly a local problem, with changes in extreme weather events and slow-onset im- pacts. Future loss and damage is potentially of inconceivable magnitude – especially considering non-economic values and the interconnectivity lead- ing to cascading, transnational effects. Addressing loss and damage is im- portant because it will affect how society manages the negative impacts of climate change while pursuing other goals, such as resilient and low-emis- sion development. The potential impacts of unmitigated anthropogenic cli- mate change have significant implications for the current social organisation. Future loss and damage can be limited through the mitigation and adaptation choices that are made today. Mitigation ambitions will largely influence the degree to which loss and damage is averted, particularly from around 2030 onwards. Until 2030, decisions that affect the level, scale and efficacy of adaptation will affect the ability of societies to adjust to manifestations of climate change such as alterations in climatic variability (e.g. shifts in sea- sonality of rainfall, heat waves, and the magnitude and frequency of extreme weather events). An implicit decision not to take ambitious mitigation action on a global scale, and/or decisions not to invest in and actively drive adap- tation, could lead to loss and damage which exceeds the ability of all levels of society to manage climate-change-induced phenomena. Loss and damage discussions under the United Nations Framework Con- vention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) have emerged as a distinct thematic area since the Cancun Agreements at the Sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP16) in Mexico in 2010, and today decision-makers are grappling with both the current and future policy steps that need to be taken in order to understand and address loss and damage. Immediate steps will include pur- suing the Doha Climate Gateway package – born in the final hours of the COP18 climate negotiations – to establish institutional arrangements to ad- dress loss and damage associated with the impacts of climate change. This article outlines initial thoughts by the Loss and Damage in Vulnerable Coun- tries Initiative1 to provide some conceptual and framing input into the loss and damage negotiations2 under the UNFCCC. Given both the early stage of these discussions and the complexity of the issues of loss and damage, a spectrum of relevant scientific and policy perspectives and areas of expertise are presented to inform ongoing dialogue.