A Markov model assessing the cost-effectiveness of various anti-vascular endothelial growth factor drugs and panretinal photocoagulation for the treatment of proliferative diabetic retinopathy

Abstract

Background: Proliferative diabetic retinopathy (PDR) may lead to vision loss and blindness. The cost-effectiveness of various anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (anti-VEGF) drugs and panretinal photocoagulation (PRP) was assessed to supplement the NICE guideline for treating PDR. Methods: A Markov model including eight levels of visual acuity (ranged between >85 and ≤25 letters) was developed to compare the cost-effectiveness of ranibizumab, aflibercept and bevacizumab with PRP (alone or in combination). Clinical inputs in the model were based on literature, while a published network meta-analysis (NMA) informed visual outcomes. Costs were estimated from a UK NHS perspective. Results: Assuming initial treatment effects from the NMA continued to be applied for the remainder of lifetime, the probabilistic analysis resulted in bevacizumab plus PRP producing the highest net monetary benefit (NMB [95% CI]) of £221,374 [£203,941–£238,388] at £20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year. However, assuming initial treatment effects stabilised over time resulted in PRP alone producing the highest NMB of £223,416 [£209,318–£236,866]. Results were associated with large uncertainty due to wide confidence intervals around vision-based treatment effects of anti-VEGFs versus PRP, particularly for bevacizumab as data were drawn from trials with small sample size and high risk of bias. Using confidential prices for aflibercept and ranibizumab did not change the overall findings. Conclusions: PRP is likely to be more cost-effective than anti-VEGFs for PDR. However, the results should be interpreted with caution given the scarcity of long-term visual outcomes with anti-VEGFs in this population. Further research on long-term visual outcomes may resolve these uncertainties.