Development of a risk stratification model for predicting acute renal failure in orthotopic liver transplantation recipients

Abstract

The purpose of this prospective observation cohort study was to develop and validate a risk stratification model for prediction of acute renal failure after liver transplantation. Data from 71 orthotopic liver transplantation recipients were used to develop a risk stratification model by binary logistic regression analysis containing the following variables: pretransplant hepatitis B and/or C infection; arterial hypertension; intra-operative mean arterial blood pressure before induction of anaesthesia; units of packed red blood cells required; hypotension (mean arterial blood pressure ≤50 mmHg); and maximum lactate concentration. Validation of the model on 167 consecutive patients revealed a sensitivity of 0.78, a specifity of 0.92, a negative predictive value of 0.96 and a positive predictive value of 0.62. This risk stratification model enables identification of orthotopic liver transplantation recipients with no or low risk for acute renal failure directly at the end of the transplantation procedure. © 2008 The Authors.