Popularity prediction on online articles with deep fusion of temporal process and content features

Abstract

Predicting the popularity of online article sheds light to many applications such as recommendation, advertising and information retrieval. However, there are several technical challenges to be addressed for developing the best of predictive capability. (1) The popularity fluctuates under impacts of external factors, which are unpredictable and hard to capture. (2) Content and meta-data features, largely determining the online content popularity, are usually multi-modal and nontrivial to model. (3) Besides, it also needs to figure out how to integrate temporal process and content features modeling for popularity prediction in different lifecycle stages of online articles. In this paper, we propose a Deep Fusion of Temporal process and Content features (DFTC) method to tackle them. For modeling the temporal popularity process, we adopt the recurrent neural network and convolutional neural network. For multi-modal content features, we exploit the hierarchical attention network and embedding technique. Finally, a temporal attention fusion is employed for dynamically integrating all these parts. Using datasets collected from WeChat, we show that the proposed model significantly outperforms state-of-the-art approaches on popularity prediction.