Development trajectories of subnational electoral competitiveness in colombian city halls: 1988-2015

Abstract

This article analyzes the variation in competitiveness in the context of Colombian city halls from the democratic deepening reforms (1986-1991) to the local elections held in 2015. To achieve this goal, we used group-based development analysis. This analysis allowed us to identify that the competitiveness of the city halls presents four trajectories of development through time: Opening, Closing, Closing and Opening, Stability. Regarding these trajectories, it is observed that, although some municipalities have increased their level of competitiveness, in the vast majority of the country the level has remained stable and does not present much subnational variation, at the same time that it is identified that in a sma-ller number of municipalities it is decreasing. This result demonstrates that local competitiveness has had a heterogeneous development in relation to time and territory in Colombia. Based on this information, four case studies were carried out to identify in an exploratory way the causes that could explain the variation in competitiveness analyzed here. The case studies, carried out through semi-structured interviews and field visits, made it possible to identify in an exploratory way some factors that have affected the competitiveness variation, such as the presence of patrimonialist political structures at the local level, political violence and the links between politicians at the local and national levels.