Utilizing TabPFN Transformer with IoT Environmental Data for Early Prediction of Grapevine Diseases

Abstract

Downy mildew and powdery mildew are among the most serious diseases that affect grapevine. They can cause severe damage, such as yield loss, and affect the size of the grapes and their ability to accumulate sugars, affecting the flavor and aroma negatively and increasing the need for fungicidal sprays to combat these diseases and the pathogens that cause them. Clearly, it is important to predict these diseases early and apply treatment promptly to prevent and mitigate the effects of these diseases on crop production. This study presents a workflow in which IoT environmental sensors and machine learning methods are leveraged to accurately predict disease onset and allow for timely fungicide applications or other disease management strategies. We collected IoT grapevine field measurements and leveraged the records of the respective time periods during which fungicide treatments were applied to grapevine, and we used them to train and evaluate different ML tabular data classifiers as early predictors for each of the two diseases. The TabPFN transformer demonstrated superior performance in disease risk assessment while enabling real-time predictions with sub-second latencies, so it can be considered as a very good choice for a real-time grapevine disease prediction system.