Modeling and Forecasting International Tourism in Zimbabwe: A Bright Future for Zimbabwe’s Tourism Industry

Abstract

This paper, which is the first of its kind in the case of Zimbabwe, uses annual time series data on international tourism demand in Zimbabwe from 1980 to 2019, to model and forecast the demand for international tourism using the Box – Jenkins ARIMA approach. This research has been guided by the following objectives: to analyze international tourism trends in Zimbabwe over the study period, to develop and estimate a reliable international tourism forecasting model for Zimbabwe based on the Box-Jenkins ARIMA technique and to project international tourism demand in Zimbabwe over the next decade (2020 – 2030). Based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC), the study presents the ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model as the optimal model. The ARIMA (2, 1, 0) model proves beyond any reasonable doubt that over the period 2020 to 2030, international tourism demand in Zimbabwe will increase and that indeed, the future of Zimbabwe’s tourism industry is bright. Amongst other policy recommendations, the study advocates for the continued implementation and enforcement of COVID-19 preventive and control measures as well as unwavering support for tourism sector development through policies such as the National Tourism Recovery and Growth Strategy.