Spatiotemporal dynamic and obstacle factor analysis of tourism economic resilience in Chinese urban agglomeration

Abstract

The resilience of the tourism economy emphasizes the ability of the tourism ecosystem to absorb or withstand disturbances and other pressures, enabling the development of the tourism industry to maintain its structure and function. Good tourism resilience management can restore the supply of tourism products and the functions of tourism services at the fastest speed through reasonable utilization of internal and external resources. Supported by multisource data, a tourism economic resilience evaluation index system for Chinese urban agglomerations was constructed. The combination dynamic evaluation method was used to quantitatively analyze the tourism economic resilience of each urban agglomeration and identify the level of resilience. The spatial kernel density method was used to dynamically simulate and analyze the evolution process and spatial distribution pattern of tourism economic resilience in urban agglomerations. An obstacle model was used to analyze the negative impact of each criterion layer and indicator layer on tourism economic resilience, in order to find path support for improving the level of tourism economic resilience. The results indicate that: (1) The tourism economic resilience of most urban agglomerations showed an upward trend from 2010 to 2018, reflecting the overall enhancement of tourism economy in different regions of China. However, due to the impact of the COVID-19 in 2020, the resilience of tourism economy declined. (2) The spatial pattern and evolution law of the resilience development of tourism economy in urban agglomerations are basically consistent with that of regional economic development. (3) The development of adjacent cities within the urban agglomeration has a relatively small impact on the resilience level, and the overall tourism economic resilience level of the urban agglomeration is relatively independent. (4) The application of digital tools in the tourism industry has a positive impact on enhancing resilience. This article proposes suggestions to strengthen resilience in responding to emergencies, promote the widespread application of digitalization and informatization in the tourism industry, optimize the infrastructure and resource allocation of the tourism market, and establish the cooperation mechanism between urban clusters, in order to enhance the overall resilience of urban clusters.