Holt-Winters Forecasting for Brazilian Natural Gas Production

Abstract

Nowadays, the market for natural gas production and its use as a source of energy supply has been growing substantially in Brazil. However, the use of tools that assist the industry in the management of production can be essential for the strategic decision-making process. In this intuit, this work aims to evaluate the formulation of Holt Winter's additive and multiplicative time series to forecast Brazilian natural gas production. A comparison between the models and their forecast play a vital role for policymakers in the strategic plan, and the models estimated production values ​​for the year 2018 based on the information contained in the interval between 2010 and 2017. Therefore, It was verified that the multiplicative method had a good performance so that we can conclude this formulation is ideal for such an application since all the predicted results by this model showed greater accuracy within the 95% confidence interval.