Estimating temperature-mortality exposure-response relationships and optimum ambient temperature at the multi-city level of China

Abstract

Few studies have explored temperature–mortality relationships in China, especially at the multi-large city level. This study was based on the data of seven typical, large Chinese cities to examine temperature-mortality relationships and optimum temperature of China. A generalized additive model (GAM) was applied to analyze the acute-effect of temperature on non-accidental mortality, and meta-analysis was used to merge data. Furthermore, the lagged effects of temperature up to 40 days on mortality and optimum temperature were analyzed using the distributed lag non-linear model (DLNM).We found that for all non-accidental mortality, high temperature could significantly increase the excess risk (ER) of death by 0.33% (95% confidence interval: 0.11%, 0.56%) with the temperature increase of 1°C. Similar but non-significant ER of death was observed when temperature decreased. The lagged effect of temperature showed that the relative risk of non-accidental mortality was lowest at 21°C. Our research suggests that high temperatures are more likely to cause an acute increase in mortality. There was a lagged effect of temperature on mortality, with an optimum temperature of 21°C. Our results could provide a theoretical basis for climate-related public health policy.