Air Quality Trends and Pollution Analysis in Nigerian Cities Using Time Series Methods

Abstract

Air pollution is a significant environmental and public health issue in rapidly urbanizing cities, particularly in developing countries like Nigeria. This study analyzes air quality trends in five major Nigerian cities Abuja, Lagos, Kano, Port Harcourt, and Enugu using satellite-based remote sensing data from January 2021 to December 2023. Key pollutants, including PM2.5, PM10, CO, NO2, SO2, and O3, were analyzed using time series models (ARIMA, SARIMA), seasonal decomposition (STL), and correlation analysis. The results reveal that Lagos and Kano experience the highest pollution levels, particularly during the Harmattan season, when Saharan dust exacerbates particulate matter. Abuja also sees significant pollution spikes, while Port Harcourt and Enugu show moderate pollution driven by industrial emissions and traffic. The study underscores the need for better air quality monitoring, seasonal interventions, and policies to reduce pollution, particularly during Harmattan.