Multitask Learning Based on Improved Uncertainty Weighted Loss for Multi-Parameter Meteorological Data Prediction

Abstract

With the exponential growth in the amount of available data, traditional meteorological data processing algorithms have become overwhelmed. The application of artificial intelligence in simultaneous prediction of multi-parameter meteorological data has attracted much attention. How-ever, existing single-task network models are generally limited by the data correlation dependence problem. In this paper, we use a priori knowledge for network design and propose a multitask model based on an asymmetric sharing mechanism, which effectively solves the correlation dependence problem in multi-parameter meteorological data prediction and achieves simultaneous prediction of multiple meteorological parameters with complex correlations for the first time. The performance of the multitask model depends largely on the relative weights among the task losses, and manually adjusting these weights is a difficult and expensive process, which makes it difficult for multitask learning to achieve the expected results in practice. In this paper, we propose an improved multitask loss processing method based on the assumptions of homoscedasticity uncertainty and the Laplace loss distribution and validate it using the German Jena dataset. The results show that the method can automatically balance the losses of each subtask and has better performance and robustness.