The Role of China Rail Network in SARS-CoV-2 Transmission and Intervention

Abstract

The rail can be competitive with car and air travel in terms of costs and journey time in countries with developed rail networks. However, it may potentially play a role in facilitating pandemic spread when encountering SARS-CoV-2. Mainly focusing on the role of rail traffic, this research constructs a 2-layer China rail network topological model based on collected China rail data, identifying 3 dynamic transmission scenarios. Then introduces the rail mobility rate into the traditional dynamic transmission model in epidemiology to fit the model for rail transportation. Finally, taking SARS-CoV-2 as an example, the transmission dynamics of sars-cov-2 is studied by simulation experiments, and the orbital movement rate control in different scenarios is measured as one of the potential interventions. Experiment outcomes lead to some managerial insights that (1) with an initial outbreak on the core layer, a faster response is required, while with an eruption on the periphery layer, more appropriate reactions and interventions are encouraged. (2) Adjusting the rail mobility rate of periphery transmission can be used to delay the local outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 in previously unaffected regions.