Severity of Influenza A 2009 (H1N1) Pneumonia Is Underestimated by Routine Prediction Rules. Results from a Prospective, Population-Based Study

Abstract

Background: Characteristics of patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) due to pandemic influenza A 2009 (H1N1) have been inadequately compared to CAP caused by other respiratory pathogens. The performance of prediction rules for CAP during an epidemic with a new infectious agent are unknown. Methods: Prospective, population-based study from November 2008-November 2009, in centers representing 70% of hospital beds in Iceland. Patients admitted with CAP underwent evaluation and etiologic testing, including polymerase chain reaction (PCR) for influenza. Data on influenza-like illness in the community and overall hospital admissions were collected. Clinical and laboratory data, including pneumonia severity index (PSI) and CURB-65 of patients with CAP due to H1N1 were compared to those caused by other agents. Results: Of 338 consecutive and eligible patients 313 (93%) were enrolled. During the pandemic peak, influenza A 2009 (H1N1) patients constituted 38% of admissions due to CAP. These patients were younger, more dyspnoeic and more frequently reported hemoptysis. They had significantly lower severity scores than other patients with CAP (1.23 vs. 1.61, P =. 02 for CURB-65, 2.05 vs. 2.87 for PSI, P