Half-millennium evidence suggests that extinction debts of global vertebrates started in the Second Industrial Revolution

Abstract

Extinction debt describes the time-lagged process of species extinction, which usually requires dozens to hundreds of years to be paid off. However, due to the lack of long-term habitat data, it is indeterminate how strong the signal of extinction debts is at the global scale and when the debts started. Here, by compiling the geographical distributions of 6120 reptiles, 6047 amphibians, and 4278 mammals and correlating them with annual forest cover data from 1500 to 1992, we show that the beginning of the Second Industrial Revolution (the mid-19th century) was the earliest signal of cumulative extinction debts for global forest-dwelling vertebrate groups. More importantly, the impact of global protected areas on mitigating accumulated vertebrate extinction debt is not as immediate as that of mitigating reduced forest cover but rather suffers from pronounced time-lag effects. As the disequilibrium of vertebrate richness and forested habitat is currently taking place, preventive actions should be taken to promote a well-balanced status among forest restoration, protected areas, and biodiversity conservation to slow the accumulating debts for global forest-dwelling vertebrates.