Risk and distribution of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease–related hospitalizations among primary care patients

Abstract

Objective To determine the extent of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) hospitalization in easily identifiable high-risk subgroups within a typical primary care practice. Design Prospective cohort analysis of administrative claims data. Setting British Columbia. Participants British Columbia residents who were 50 years or older on December 31, 2014, and received a physician diagnosis of COPD between 1996 and 2014. Main outcome measures Rate of acute exacerbation of COPD (AECOPD) or pneumonia hospitalization in 2015, broken down by risk identifiers including previous AECOPD admission, 2 or more community respirologist consultations, nursing home residence, or none of these. Results Of the 242,509 identified COPD patients (12.9% of British Columbia residents ≥50 years), 2.8% were hospitalized for AECOPD in 2015 (0.038 AECOPD hospitalizations per patient-year). The 12.0% with prior AECOPD hospitalization accounted for 57.7% of new AECOPD hospitalizations (0.183 hospitalizations per patient-year); the 7.7% with respirologist involvement accounted for 20.4% (0.102 hospitalizations per patient-year); and the 2.2% in nursing homes accounted for 3.6% (0.061 hospitalizations per patient-year). Those with any of the 3 risk identifiers accounted for only 1.5% more COPD hospitalizations (59.2%) than those with prior AECOPD hospitalization, suggesting prior AECOPD hospitalization is the most important indication of risk. A typical primary care practice held a median of 23 (interquartile range=4 to 65) COPD patients, of whom roughly 20 (86.4%) had none of these risk identifiers. This low-risk majority had only 0.018 AECOPD hospitalizations per patient-year. Conclusion Most AECOPD hospitalizations occur in patients with previous such admissions. When time and resources are limited, COPD initiatives targeting primary care practices should focus more on the 2 to 3 patients with prior AECOPD hospitalization or more symptomatic disease, and less on the low-risk majority.