Estimate Attraction Rate for Shopping Centers

Abstract

In developing countries like Baghdad, it has seen high growth of urbanization accompanied by the high trip rate, which conduces increased vehicle traffic and human traffic. One of the major problems is the increase in traffic congestion of unplanned development of various structures at various locations. Four-step demand models are important in planning and forecasting future demand. Trip generation is an important step when planning urban infrastructure. In this study, three shopping centers (AL Mansour mall, Babylon mall, and al Waha mall) were selected, trip attraction rates were calculated using two approaches (trip rate analysis method, and Regression analysis method). The number of persons entering and exiting the site for every 15-minute interval during peak hours is estimated. This research considers various physical characteristics of shopping centers, gross floor area (GFA), number of employees and the number of stores in the shopping center. From the data analysis, good relations exist between the dependent variable (trip rate) and various independent variables, and the developed trip rate per GFA per 1000 m2 is 133 person trips and various trip rates are presented through this study.