A GRU-Enhanced Kolmogorov–Arnold Network Model for Sea Surface Temperature Prediction Derived from Satellite Altimetry Product in South China Sea

Abstract

High-precision Sea Surface Temperature (SST) prediction is critical for understanding ocean–atmosphere interactions and climate anomaly monitoring. We propose GRU_EKAN, a novel hybrid model where Gated Recurrent Units (GRUs) capture temporal dependencies and the Enhanced Kolmogorov–Arnold Network (EKAN) models complex feature interactions between SST and multivariate ocean predictors. This study integrates GRU with EKAN, using B-spline-parameterized activation functions to model high-dimensional nonlinear relationships between multiple ocean variables (including sea water potential temperature at the sea floor, ocean mixed layer thickness defined by sigma theta, sea water salinity, current velocities, and sea surface height) and SST. L2 regularization addresses multicollinearity among predictors. Experiments were conducted at 25 South China Sea sites using 2011–2021 CMEMS data. The results show that GRU_EKAN achieves a superior mean R2 of 0.85, outperforming LSTM_EKAN, GRU, and LSTM by 5%, 25%, and 23%, respectively. Its average RMSE (0.90 °C), MAE (0.76 °C), and MSE (0.80 °C2) represent reductions of 31.3%, 27.0%, and 53.2% compared to GRU. The model also exhibits exceptional stability and minimal Weighted Quality Evaluation Index (WQE) fluctuation. During the 2019–2020 temperature anomaly events, GRU_EKAN predictions aligned closest with observations and captured abrupt trend shifts earliest. This model provides a robust tool for high-precision SST forecasting in the South China Sea, supporting marine heatwave warnings.