Mathematical modeling and multi-agents approach for the evolution of the Coronavirus pandemic

Abstract

The objective of this work is to simulate the growth of the novel corona virus disease in some cities in Morocco. We study the impact of the barrier and health measures to be taken to reduce the spread and contain the epidemic. In order to define the optimal measures to take to curb the spread of the pandemic, our goal is to use adequate mathematical modeling tools and adapt agent-based models to simulate the evolution of the pandemic and its spread in Morocco. An analysis of the disease spread based on compartmental modeling leads to an ordinary differential equation governing the system. In addition, the agent-based approach uses artificial intelligence and makes it possible to deal with complexity, also permits to consider different scenarios. The obtained numerical simulations give a clear idea of the spread of a party's disease and for each of the measures that are taken into account during containment or during de-containment. These simulations are decision support efficient tools rendered on powerful modeling tools. The two approaches are complementary and give rise to successful models.