Specification of monthly mean anomalies of surface air temperature in Canada and Alaska

Abstract

Anomalies of monthly mean surface temperature observed at 55 stations in Canada and 13 in Alaska from 1951 through 1980 are related to concurrent anomalies of monthly mean 700‐mb height at a network of 107 grid points in North America and the surrounding oceans. The data are screened by a stepwise forward selection procedure to yield multiple regression equations for specifying the monthly mean temperature anomaly at each city and for each month from the field of simultaneous 700‐mb heights plus the previous month's local temperature anomaly. On the average, the specification equations explain 70% of the temperature variance and select as predictors approxiamtely 2 heights to the west of the reference station, 1.5 heights in the vicinity, 1 height to the east, and 0.5 previous temperatures.Most of this paper describes various properties of the specification equations and related atmospheric characteristics on a regional, seasonal and month‐to‐month basis. Five statistical features are mapped for the months of January, April, July and October, and marked regional differences are noted. The above features are then averaged for the entire region and graphed month by month; the annual cycle of other properties is also described. Systematic spatial and temporal variations in the characteristics of temperature variability, persistence, correlation with height, and specification equations are illustrated. © 1985 Taylor & Francis Group, LLC.