A federated learning-enabled predictive analysis to forecast stock market trends

Abstract

This article proposes a federated learning framework to build Random Forest, Support Vector Machine, and Linear Regression models for stock market prediction. The performance of the federated learning is compared against centralised and decentralised learning frameworks to figure out the best fitting approach for stock market prediction. According to the results, federated learning outperforms both centralised and decentralised frameworks in terms of Mean Square Error if Random Forest (MSE = 0.021) and Support Vector Machine techniques (MSE = 37.596) are used, while centralised learning (MSE = 0.011) outperforms federated and decentralised frameworks if a linear regression model is used. Moreover, federated learning gives a better model training delay as compared to the benchmarks if Linear Regression (time = 9.7 s) and Random Forest models (time = 515 s) are used, whereas decentralised learning gives a minimised model training delay (time = 3847 s) for Support Vector Machine.