Antarctic verification of the australian numerical weather prediction model

Abstract

The Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator-Global (ACCESS-G) features an atmosphere-only numerical weather prediction (NWP) suite used operationally by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology to forecast weather conditions for the Antarctic. The current operational version of the forecast model, the Australian Parallel Suite v2 (APS2), has been used operationally since early 2016. To date, the performance of the model has been largely unverified for the Antarctic and anecdotal reports suggest challenges for model performance in the region. This study investigates the performance of ACCESS-G south of 508S over 2017 and finds that model performance degrades toward the poles and in proportion to forecast horizon against a range of performance metrics. The model exhibits persistent negative surface and mean sea level pressure biases around the Adelie Land coast, which is linked to the underrepresentation of model winds to the west, and driven by positive screen temperature biases that inhibit modeled katabatic outflow. These results suggest that an improved representation of boundary layer parameterization could be implemented to improve model performance in the region.