Methodology for targeting analysis for minimal response

Abstract

Target planning is done by our military. The purpose of this article is to describe a possible methodology based upon military parameters to measure the adequacy of a set of potential targets. The goal is to select targets that do not cause any unacceptable military escalation. A hybrid analytical hierarchy process-technique for order of preference by similarity to ideal solution (AHP-TOPSIS) approach is used to obtain target priorities and target values. The target values become one of the independent variables in the binary logistics regression model. Using sample unclassified baseline data, a binary logistics regression model is built and analyzed as a predictive tool. The model is used as a predictive tool with future target data to measure the probability of an escalation. Sensitivity and specificity are used to determine appropriate probability values for red line analysis.