Asymmetric relationships between information and communication technology (ICT), globalization, and human development in India: evidence from non-linear ARDL analysis

Abstract

The objective of the paper is to examine the asymmetric relationships between ICT, globalization, and human development in India by analysing the annual data from 1991 to 2019 through the non-linear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model. The result shows that positive (negative) change in globalization leads to a decline (increase) in human development in the long run. Further, a positive change in mobile density increases human development in the long run. A decline in internet density has a negative impact on human development in the long run. In the short run, a positive shock in globalization with one lag has a positive impact on human development. Moreover, a previous year positive shock in internet density has a positive effect on human development while the previous 2 years positive shock in internet density has a negative effect on human development in the short run. A negative shock in internet density with lag one has a negative effect on human development while with lag two it has a positive effect on human development. It is also found that the global financial crisis of 2008 has a negative impact on human development. Thus, it is suggested that India has to promote both globalization and ICT judiciously and consciously in order to improve human development.