Phylogenetics, Epidemiology and Temporal Patterns of Dengue Virus in Araraquara, São Paulo State

Abstract

Dengue virus (DENV) is a prominent arbovirus with global spread, causing approximately 390 million infections each year. In Brazil, yearly epidemics follow a well-documented pattern of serotype replacement every three to four years on average. Araraquara, located in the state of São Paulo, has faced significant impacts from DENV epidemics since the emergence of DENV-1 in 2010. The municipality then transitioned from low to moderate endemicity in less than 10 years. Yet, there remains an insufficient understanding of virus circulation dynamics, particularly concerning DENV-1, in the region, as well as the genetic characteristics of the virus. To address this, we sequenced 37 complete or partial DENV-1 genomes sampled from 2015 to 2022 in Araraquara. Then, using also Brazilian and worldwide DENV-1 sequences we reconstructed the evolutionary history of DENV-1 in Araraquara and estimated the time to the most recent common ancestor (tMRCA) for serotype 1, for genotype V and its main lineages. Within the last ten years, there have been at least three introductions of genotype V in Araraquara, distributed in two main lineages (L Ia and L Ib, and L II). The tMRCA for the first sampled lineage (2015/2016 epidemics) was approximately 15 years ago (in 2008). Crucially, our analysis challenges existing assumptions regarding the emergence time of the DENV-1 genotypes, suggesting that genotype V might have diverged more recently than previously described. The presence of the two lineages of genotype V in the municipality might have contributed to the extended persistence of DENV-1 in the region.